Volume 3, Number 2
Coldwell Banker Schmitt continues to be the market share leader for listings and sales of million dollar-plus properties from Key Largo to Key West, as it has for many years. We publish our Luxury Island Properties newsletter at the end of the first and third quarters of each year to provide sellers and buyers of high-end properties with up-to-date information concerning this important segment of the Florida Keys real estate market.
KEYS-WIDE MARKET OVERVIEW (12-Month Comparison)
Sales of luxury residential properties ($1,000,000 ) increased 6% to 328 compared to 310 a year ago. Luxury sales accounted for 13% of all sales Keys-wide up marginally from 12% last year. Note: See our next feature for the history of luxury residential sales since 2000.
Pending Transactions increased by 20% to 61 from 51 at the end of September, accounting for 18% of the Keys-wide total versus 11% last year.
The 422 Luxury Property Listings accounted for 16% of all listed properties. For the first nine months of 2017, they accounted for 14% of all listings Keys-wide.
The average sale price rose by 2% to $1,617,693 from $1,590,760 a year ago. The increase in luxury sales and average sale price is a factor in the overall increase in average sale prices Keys-wide in 2018.
The average list price was $2,325,569 at the end of September, up 3% from $2,247,734 last year.
With the rate of sales for the past 12 months, the Months of Inventory (MOI) is 15, down -7% compared to 11 MOI for all property types. (MOI provides a measure of the rate of sales versus the supply of properties and is also known as the “absorption rate.”)
The Dollar Value of Sales (DVS) totaled $530,603,296, up 8% from the $493,135,596 figure for the same period in 2017. While luxury sales accounted for only 13% of the number of sales, they accounted for 32% of the Keys-wide total DVS over the past nine months, compared to 33% for the same period last year. Therefore, on a dollar basis, luxury residential sales currently comprise about one-third of all sales Keys-wide.
The Sale Price-to-Original List Price (SP/OLP) of 88.51% increased 1% from 87.62% at the end of September 2017. The highest SP/OLP of 95.78% occurred in the first nine months of 2000. (The SP/OLP compares the sale price of the property to the list price of the property at the time it first came on the market. It provides a measure of the mismatch between many sellers’ initial list price and the market price acceptable to buyers.)
The Sale Price-to-Final List Price (SP/FLP) remained unchanged at 91.35% compared to 91.48% last year. (The SP/FLP compares the sale price of the property to the list price of the property at the time the contract was written instead of the time the property was first listed. It reflects the average percentage of the final listed price that buyers are paying for properties that have sold.)
The margin between the SP/OLP (88.51%) and SP/FLP (91.35%) is 2.8%. That margin indicates that, on average, a seller can anticipate price reductions during the term of the listing of 2.8% from their original list price to the final list price prior to receiving a buyer’s offer. The margin high was 24.2% at the end of Q3 2010; with a low of 2.5% last September 30th. Correspondingly, sellers and buyers today can expect the contract price, on average, to be -8.6% less than the final list price and -11.5% less than their original list price.
Summarized Submarket Area Details January through September 2018 vs. 2017
A History of Florida Keys Luxury Property Sales
In the initial edition of our Luxury Island Properties newsletter, we provided readers with a history of Florida Keys luxury property sales (valued at $1M ) during the first nine months of the preceding 18 years. That era encompassed periods of record growth for the Florida Keys real estate market (1999 to 2005), followed by the collapse of the market due to the impact of Hurricane Wilma in October of 2005 and the national recession (2006 to 2009), followed by an improving Keys real estate market 2010 through the first three quarters of 2017 when it was negatively impacted by Hurricane Irma on September 9, 2017. Irma caused a decline of -61% for September 2017 sales to 77 versus the 194 in September of 2016 and 198 in September 2018. The concern has been just how substantial an impact Irma would have on the 2018 Keys real estate market and, of course, on the luxury residential market.
Sales during the first nine months have consistently increased since 2011. 2018’s total was the second-highest on record with 278 while accounting for 13% of all sales from Key Largo to Key West. The increased activity resulted in $453M for dollar value of sales, also the second-highest on record. In addition, it accounted for 32% of the dollar value of all sales in the Keys as the ASP rose 2% along with 14% growth in the number of sales and was a positive factor for the 15% increase in the ASP for the overall Keys-wide market.
Of particular note: The SP/OLP of 90.10% is the highest on record while the 92.47% SP/FLP is the fourth highest and produced a record low margin between the two of 2.4%.
From the foregoing, it’s apparent that the 2018 Keys luxury market has not been adversely impacted by Hurricane Irma. Luxury sales during the first nine months of 2018 increased 14% and the dollar value of sales rose by 34% over the same period in 2017. We anticipate that the Keys luxury market will generally mirror the overall real estate market which we project will continue to enjoy stable and sustainable sales increases. The first sign of a declining market, traditionally, is an increase in inventory and that has not been evident on an overall basis.
The Leading Company for Sales & Listings of Luxury Island Properties Keys-wide
Coldwell Banker Schmitt Real Estate Co.
11100 Overseas Highway, Marathon, FL 33050