Coldwell Banker Schmitt's Real Estate Report

Real Estate Report | Coldwell Banker - Schmitt Real Estate
Volume 17, Number 4

Fall 2018

Florida Keys Real Estate Market Comparison: January—September 2018 vs. 2017
*Source: Tri-Services Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Board Key Largo To Key West

Keys-wide Overview of Sales and Listings for All Property Types

The Sale of 2,163 Properties during the first nine months of 2018 was 5% higher than the 2,057 sold during that same period in 2017. The primary reason was the impact of Hurricane Irma on September 9, 2017 as Sales during September 2017 totaled 77 while September sales in 2018 were 198, a 157% increase.  In contrast, at the end of August, the 1,970 sales was -1% less than the 1,985 sales during the first eight months of 2017.  The nine-month record of 2,818 occurred in 2004 with the low of 913 coming in 2008.

The 2,567 Properties For Sale on September 30, 2018 was 13% more than the 2,264 on that date in 2017, -50% less than the peak of 5,084 in March of 2007.  The lowest number of properties available for sale -- 1,339 -- occurred at the end of Q3 2004.

The $657K
Average Sale Price (ASP) at the end of September was 15% more than the $571K last year. The $657K for the first nine months of 2018 is a reduction of -18% from the peak of $805K in 2006.  The lowest recorded during this century was $273K in 2000.   The increase from 2000 is 141% or an annual average appreciation rate of 7.8%.

The $880K Average Listed Price (ALP) during the first nine months of 2018 was down -4% from $913K at the end of Q3 last year.  The ALP peaked at the end of 2007 at $990K, then decreased -30% to $695K by the end of 2012, before increasing by 27% at the end of Q3 2018.

The Dollar Value of Sales (DVS) of $1.423 Billion rose 21% from $1.175 billion for January-September 2017 as a result of the 15% increase in ASP and 5% increase in number of sales. The record DVS year occurred in 2005 at $1.8B, the result of an ASP of $788K and 2,337 properties sold. The lowest DVS of $505MM occurred in 2009 with 1,090 sales and an ASP of $463K.

The Sale Price-to-Original List Price (SP/OLP) increased 3% to a new high of 91.95% compared to 89.64% a year earlier.  The lowest, 62.49%, occurred at the end of December 2009. (The SP/OLP compares the sale price of the property to the list price of the property at the time it first came on the market. It provides a measure of the mismatch between many sellers’ initial list price and the market price acceptable to buyers.)

The Sale Price-to-Final List Price (SP/FLP) of 94.05% was nearly the same as the 94.38% of last year.  The peak for this ratio was 94.85% in 2004 and the low, 87.10%, came during 2009.  (The SP/FLP compares the sale price of the property to the list price of the property at the time the contract was written instead of the time the property was first listed.  It reflects the average percentage of the final listed price that buyers are paying for properties that have sold.)

The margin between the SP/OLP (91.95%) and SP/FLP (94.05%) is 2.1%. That margin indicates, on average, a seller can anticipate a price reduction during the term of the listing of about -2.1% from their 0riginal List Price to the Final List Price prior to receiving a buyer’s offer which would be about -6% less than the Final List Price.  The lowest margin between SP/OLP and SP/FLP was 1.4% at the end of February this year; a significant reduction from the low of 3.8% at the end of 2017. The largest variance, -25%, occurred at the end of 2009 when the SP/OLP was the lowest to date, 62.49%. Additionally, for 2009 the SP/FLP of 87.10% meant that the accepted buyer’s offer was -12.9% less than the Final List Price; also a record high discount.

Days On the Market to Sell declined -16% to 125 days from the 149 recorded for the first nine months of 2017. (This is a measure of the number of days between the date the property was listed and the date the sale closed vs. when the property went under contract.)

The 11 Months of Inventory (MOI) is a 1% increase from 10 at the end of September last year.  The lowest MOI was 3 at the end of Q2 2004 and the high of 55 months occurred at the end of March 2008.  (MOI provides a measure of the rate of sales versus the supply of properties and is also known as the “absorption rate.”)

A Synopsis of Submarket Area Activity January -September 2018 vs. 2017

How Has Hurricane Irma Affected the Keys Real Estate Market?

The following chart shows how the 2018 Keys real estate market has performed subsequent to Hurricane Irma last September in comparison to the first three quarters of each year since 2000.  The chart shows the number of sales and the change in average sale price (ASP) by property type: Residential Waterfront & Non-Waterfront (included are Single Family, Condominium, Duplex, one-half Duplex and Townhomes), Lots & Land Waterfront & Non-Waterfront, Commercial, Boat Slips and Mobile Homes.

· 2018 numbers for number of sales and ASP are in blue.

· The year with the record high for number of sales and ASP has the cell background in Salmon.

· The year with the previous high has a light blue background.

· The year with the lowest number has a light green background.

The following is a summary for each property type.

Residential Waterfront:

Sales: 867 is 18% higher than the 733 of last year.

ASP: $783K is virtually unchanged from the $781K of 2017.

Residential Non-Waterfront:

Sales: 679 is just -2% lower than the 694 of 2017.

ASP: $630K is 7% higher than 2017’s $591K.

Lots & Land Waterfront:

Sales: 116 is -8% lower than 126 in 2017.

ASP: $333K is 17% higher than $284K in 2017.

Lots & Land Non-Waterfront:

Sales: 101 is -8% lower than 110 sales in 2017.

ASP: $125K is 8% higher than $116K last year.


Sales: 98 is 20% higher than 82 during 2017.

ASP: $2.065M is 98% higher than $1.045M for 2017.

Boat Slips:

Sales: 21 is 17% higher than the 18 for 2017.

ASP: $109K is -45% lower than $197K during 2017.

Mobile Homes:

Sales: 143 is essentially the same as the 144 of a year ago.

ASP: $250K is down -4% from the $260K of 2017.

All property types have increased either the number of sales, or average sales price, or they were essentially the same as a year ago with the exception of commercial properties which had solid increases in both.  Accordingly, we can conclude that Hurricane Irma has not had a significantly negative impact on the Keys real estate market.

What Do the Numbers Forecast?

The Keys real estate market has been remarkably stable since March of this year.  Listings have remained in the 2,500 vicinity since April 1 instead of declining (as they typically do) in the normal annual market cycle from April through September, before trending upward and peaking in February or March.  The inventory stability is a direct result of Irma which precipitated an immediate decline in the number of properties for sale. The cycle of listings (sellers) and sales (buyers) whose annual peaks and valleys are normally out of phase with each other was disrupted by Irma.  In response to the storm, sellers took their damaged properties off the market. Those properties have been coming back onto the market as they’ve been repaired. Buyers have continued to look and wait for the right property, given the reduced supply, resulting in a very atypical year for sales which have continued to be stable following the typical annual peak sales month in April and May.  We will continue to see increased listings and sales through the balance of 2018 vs. the same post-Irma period in 2017 with incremental increases in sales prices.

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