Keys-wide Overview of Sales and Listings for all property types
The Sales total of 1,480 properties is an increase of 1% from the 1,467 for the first half of 2017 and 4% over the 1,430 during that period in 2016. The record for the first six months of the year occurred in 2002 with 3,584 sales. The low of 628 came in 2008.
Pending Transactions increased 29% to 372 from 288 at mid-year 2017. (Pending transactions are properties that are under contract with various conditions such as inspections, loan approval, etc., to complete before closing and provide an indication of additional properties that will close during the next 30 to 90 days. )
The 2,545 Properties For Sale on June 30 is 1% more than 2,509 on that date last year and -3% less than the 2,613 on that date in 2016. Hurricane Irma caused major damage to numerous properties last September and listing inventory dropped to 2,286 by the end of 2017, down -9% from 2,509 at 2017’s mid-year point. The 2,545 properties on the market at the end of June is an increase of 11% over the past six months.
The $589K Average Sale Price (ASP) represents virtually no change from $586K over the same period last year but is still less than the peak of $846K for Q1 of 2006. Of note: the ASP has risen 3% from $571K in December 2017. The lowest was $404K at the end of 2011.
The Average Listed Price (ALP) of $938K is 1% more than the $931K at the end of June last year and 17% more than the $805K on June 30, 2016.
The Dollar Value of Sales (DVS) of $872M is up 1% compared to $861M for the first half of 2017 as a result of the 1% increase in number of sales with no change in the ASP.
The Sale Price-to-Original List Price (OLP/SP) of 90.91% is down just a tick from the first half of 2016, 91.05%, which was the highest percentage on record. (The OLP/SP compares the sale price of the property to the list price of the property at the time it first came on the market versus the list price at the time the contract was written, thereby providing a measure of the mismatch between many sellers’ initial list price and the market price acceptable to buyers.) The lowest, 62.49%, occurred in 2009.
The Sale Price-to-Final List Price (FLP/SP) is -1% lower at 93.90% compared to 94.42% during the first half of 2016. (The FLP/SP compares the sale price of the property to the list price of the property at the time the contract was written instead of the time the property was first listed and reflects the average percentage of the final listed price that buyers are paying for properties that have sold.) This metric tends to decline as the inventory of listings increases. The high was 94.85% in 2004 with the lowest, 87.10%, occurring in 2009. The difference between the OLP/SP (90.91%) and FLP/SP (93.90%) is 2.99% which represents, on average, that sellers can anticipate price reductions during the term of the listing of about -3% from their original list price to the final list price prior to receiving a buyer’s offer. Additionally, sellers and buyers today can expect the contract price, on average, to be approximately -6% less than the final list price. From 2001-2005, that average was -5% with the greatest differential at -12.9% in 2009.
Average Days to Sell (ADS) at 132 was -5% less than last year’s record low of 138. The high of 165 days occurred during the first half of 2015 with the previous low of 143 at the end of June 2004. The low ADS is the result of buyers moving quickly on well-priced properties as they are perceived to have the best value. (ADS is the number of days between the date the property was listed and the date it went under contract; i.e. Pending.)
The 10 Months of Inventory (MOI) is exactly where it was one year ago. (MOI provides a measure of the rate of sales versus the supply of properties and is also known as the “absorption rate.”) The record high for the first half of the year occurred in 2008 at 43, with the low of 3 in 2002.
What do the numbers forecast? At mid-year, we have a relatively stable market. The average sale price has not moved much since 2016 and the margins between list and sale prices have been steady over the past 12 months, therefore, we predict no significant changes in the next quarter. Based on the stable inventory of properties for sale over the past two years, we expect the number of sales and the average sale prices to remain stable for the balance of 2018. We’ll be monitoring what happens closely and will report on it in the next Real Estate Report.
Market Trends Synopsis for the First Half of 2018
The following compares sales during the first half of 2018 (post-Irma) to the same period in 2017 (pre-Irma) to provide some insight into how well the Keys real estate market has recovered from the devastation caused by Hurricane Irma. This section addresses Activity by Property Type Keys-wide, including waterfront and non-waterfront sales. The next section addresses Sales Activity by Price Bracket for each of the four submarket areas.
Activity by Property Type
· Single Family: Keys-wide sales of Single Family homes decreased -1% with 55% of the properties being waterfront compared to 49% in 2017, a 12% increase over 2017. Only 2% of the SF Waterfront are in Key West (due to the small number of such properties there). 53% of all sales Keys-wide were single family homes versus 54% in 2017.
· Condominium: Keys-wide sales of condos increased 10% with 70% of the condos sold being waterfront compared to 62% in 2017, a 13% increase over 2017. 14% of all sales Keys-wide were condominiums, 13% in 2017.
· Townhouses: Keys-wide sales of townhouses increased 17% with 44% of those sold being waterfront compared to 36% in 2017, a 24% increase over 2017. 9% of all sales Keys-wide were townhouses, 8% in 2017.
· Duplex and Half-Duplex: Keys-wide sales of duplexes dropped -14% with 52% of the duplexes being waterfront properties versus 64% over 2017, a -19% decrease from 2017. 5% of all sales Keys-wide were duplexes, the same as in 2017.
· Boat Slips: Keys-wide sales of boat slips declined by -6% with 15 boat slips sold versus 16 last year during the same period. 1% of all sales Keys-wide were boat slips, the same as in 2017.
· Land: Keys-wide sales of vacant land were down -14% to 151 from 175 in 2017. 49% of all lot sales were waterfront compared to 54% in 2017, a decline of -10% from 2017. 12% of all sales Keys-wide were land versus 14% during 2017.
· Commercial: Keys-wide commercial sales increased 14% to 64 from 56 in 2017. 6% of all sales Keys-wide were commercial, 5% in 2017.
Activity by Price Bracket for All Property Types by Market Area
Sale Price Less Than $500K:
· Upper Keys: 234 sales, down -13% = 54% of all sales UK Market
· Middle Keys: 148 sales, up 3% = 56% of all sales MK Market
· Lower Keys: 199 sales, down -3% = 65% of all sales LK Market
· Key West: 189 sales, up 1% = 43% of all sales KW Market
Sale Price $500K-$999K:
· Upper Keys: 140 sales, up 17% = 32% of all sales UK Market
· Middle Keys: 84 sales, up 5% = 32% of all sales MK Market
· Lower Keys: 86 sales, up 18% = 27% of all sales LK Market
· Key West: 158 sales, down -2% = 36% of all sales KW Market
Sale Price $1M-$1.9M:
· Upper Keys: 42 sales, up 27% = 10% of all sales UK Market
· Middle Keys: 28 sales, down -20% = 11% of all sales MK Market
· Lower Keys: 21 sales, up 50% = 7% of all sales LK Market
· Key West: 74 sales, up 9% = 17% of all sales KW Market
Sale Price $2M-$2.9M:
· Upper Keys: 13 sales, up 44% = 3% of all sales UK Market
· Middle Keys: 2 sales, down No Change = <1% of all sales MK Market
· Lower Keys: 2 sales, up 100% = <1% of all sales LK Market
· Key West: 12 sales, up 33% = 3% of all sales KW Market
Sale Price $3M :
· Upper Keys: 4 sales, down -20% = 1% of all sales UK Market
· Middle Keys: 0 sales vs. 3 in 2017 = <1% of all sales MK Market
· Lower Keys: 0 sales vs. 1 in 2017 = <1% of all sales LK Market
· Key West: 6 sales, down -25% = 1% of all sales KW Market
For Activity by Price Bracket the most active across the Keys was the $500K-$999K bracket which was up 8%; the $1M-$1.9M bracket, up 10%; and the $2M-$2.9M bracket rose 38%. The less- than-$500K bracket declined -5% because of the high percentage of properties in that price bracket damaged during the hurricane; therefore, fewer properties have been on the market. The $3M also declined -41%, as that price bracket has a much smaller client base than any of the other price ranges with a total of 10 sales this year versus 17 last year.
Synopsis: From 79% to 93% of sales by market area are below $1 Million. All of the market areas, with the exception of the Middle Keys, have seen more $1 Million sales this year. All markets are down in the $3 Million category.
As noted in the lead story, we anticipate the market during the remainder of 2018 to be very similar to the first half of the year.
100430 Overseas Highway
85996 Overseas Highway
11050 Overseas Highway
Big Pine Key
29967 Overseas Highway
1201 White Street, #101